This thread summarizes my thoughts for the past few months.

This comes down to the concept of correlation.

Asset correlation is a measure of how investments move in relation to one another. Correlation is measured on a scale of -100 to 100. When assets move in the same direction at the same time, they are highly correlated and have a high number score. When one asset tends to move up when the another goes down, the two assets are considered to be negatively correlated and receive a low score. When there is no relationship to movement, asset pairs are considered non correlated and receive a number close to 0.

So what were these guys really saying?

Pomp is saying BTC and USD will be negatively correlated in the next recession, and BTC will perform better.

It sounds like Qiao is saying that he agrees BTC and USD are negatively correlated but that's not a reason to hold BTC during the next recession. There is no indication BTC will perform well in the next recession, regardless of USD performance.

They are in agreement that the Fed is a bad thing.

I think the optimal position is a diverse position, unless you're a gambler. You want to hold investments that are spread across all three correlation categories, and use past performance to help guide your positions.